Kernrechtsfrage
Whether the refusal of conditional release violated Art. 86 CP because the prognosis was too unfavorable.
Extrahierter Entscheid
The cantonal court did not abuse its discretion in finding the prognosis unfavorable; the refusal of conditional release was lawful.
Extrahierte Begründung
The Federal Court held that conditional release under Art. 86 CP requires only that future crime or offense is not to be feared. The cantonal court could rely on the applicant's lack of realistic plans after release, his stated intention to remain in Switzerland despite an executable removal decision, and the resulting instability, which experts had identified as a risk context for reoffending.