Kernrechtsfrage
Whether the refusal of conditional release was lawful under Art. 86 StGB.
Extrahierter Entscheid
The refusal was lawful because, despite some progress, the current prognosis remained insufficiently favorable and the residual risk was still too high.
Extrahierte Begründung
Conditional release is the rule, but for very serious violent offenses heightened prognostic demands apply. The court relied on the latest expert opinion, prison report, probation service, and the special risk created by possible flight and the gravity of the crimes.