Willis Electric Co., Ltd. v. Polygroup Ltd. (macao Commercial Offshore), Polygroup Macau Limited Bvi, Polytree…

United States Court of Appeals
for the Federal Circuit
______________________
WILLIS ELECTRIC CO., LTD.,
Plaintiff-Appellee
v.
POLYGROUP LTD. (MACAO COMMERCIAL
OFFSHORE), POLYGROUP MACAU LIMITED BVI,
POLYTREE (HK) CO. LTD., POLYGROUP
TRADING LTD.,
Defendants-Appellants
______________________
2024-2118
______________________
Appeal from the United States District Court for the
District of Minnesota in No. 0:15-cv-03443-JNE-DTS, Sen-
ior Judge Joan N. Ericksen.
______________________
Decided: February 17, 2026
______________________
MARK CHRISTOPHER FLEMING, Wilmer Cutler Pickering
Hale and Dorr LLP, Boston, MA, argued for plaintiff-appel-
lee. Also represented by NORA N. XU, Washington, DC;
PATRICK M. ARENZ, BRENDA L. JOLY, EMILY ELIZABETH
NILES, Robins Kaplan LLP, Minneapolis, MN.
J. MICHAEL JAKES, Finnegan, Henderson, Farabow,
Garrett & Dunner, LLP, Washington, DC, argued for de-
fendants-appellants. Also represented by RYAN VALENTINE
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WILLIS ELECTRIC CO., LTD. v.
POLYGROUP LTD. (MACAO COMMERCIAL OFFSHORE)
2
MCDONNELL, JASON LEE ROMRELL; RACHEL ZIMMERMAN
SCOBIE, Merchant & Gould P.C., Minneapolis, MN.
______________________
Before MOORE, Chief Judge, STARK, Circuit Judge, and
OETKEN, District Judge.1
MOORE, Chief Judge.
Polygroup Ltd. (Macao Commercial Offshore), Poly-
group Macau Limited BVI, Polytree (HK) Co. Ltd., and Pol-
ygroup Trading Ltd. (collectively, Polygroup) appeal an
order from the United States District Court for the District
of Minnesota denying Polygroup’s motion for judgment as
a matter of law (JMOL) of obviousness and for a new trial
on damages. For the following reasons, we affirm.
BACKGROUND
Willis Electric Co., Ltd. (Willis) owns U.S. Patent
No. 8,454,186, which relates to pre-lit artificial trees with
decorative lighting. ’186 patent at 1:14–18. The trees fea-
ture separable, modular trunk portions that are mechani-
cally and electrically connectable to each other, providing
electricity to the trees’ attached lights at any rotational ori-
entation. Id. at 1:14–18, 15:1–6, 15:45–59. The prior art
required making separate mechanical and electrical con-
nections when assembling pre-lit trees—first by mechani-
cally joining the trunk sections, then by manually
connecting electrical cords to power the lights. Id. at
1:47–56. The ’186 patent, by contrast, teaches a single, in-
tegrated connection in which assembling the trunk sections
establishes the mechanical and electrical connections
1 The Honorable J. Paul Oetken, District Judge,
United States District Court for the Southern District of
New York, sitting by designation.
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simultaneously, allowing a tree to illuminate automatically
without additional wiring steps. Id. at 2:54–62.
Only claim 15, which depends from independent
claim 10, is at issue in this appeal. Claim 10 reads:
10. A lighted artificial tree, comprising:
a first tree portion including a first trunk portion,
a first plurality of branches joined to the first trunk
portion, and a first light string, the first trunk por-
tion having a first trunk body and a trunk con-
nector, at least a portion of the trunk connector
housed within the first trunk body and electrically
connected to the first light string;
a second tree portion including a second trunk por-
tion, a second plurality of branches joined to the
second trunk portion, and a second light string, the
second trunk portion having a trunk body and a
trunk connector, at least a portion of the trunk con-
nector housed within the second trunk portion and
electrically connected to the second light string;
and
wherein the second tree portion is mechanically
and electrically connectable to the first tree portion
by coupling a lower end of the second trunk body to
an upper end of the first trunk body along a com-
mon vertical axis at a rotational orientation of the
first trunk portion relative the second trunk por-
tion about the common vertical axis, thereby caus-
ing the trunk connector of the first trunk portion to
make an electrical connection with the trunk con-
nector of the second trunk portion within an inte-
rior of the lighted artificial tree, the electrical
connection being made independent of the rota-
tional orientation of the first trunk portion relative
the second trunk portion about the common verti-
cal axis.
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Id. at 22:33–60.
Claim 15 reads:
15. The lighted artificial tree of claim 10, wherein
the trunk connectors of the first and second tree
portions form coaxial trunk connectors.
Id. at 23:8–10.
In August 2015, Willis sued Polygroup for infringing
four patents, including “one or more claims” of the ’186 pa-
tent. J.A. 4000–07. Willis later amended its complaint to
assert two more patents, accusing several Polygroup trees
with “Quick Set”2 features. J.A. 4008–14. In response, Pol-
ygroup filed sixteen petitions for inter partes review (IPR),
three of which challenged, in relevant part, claims 1, 3–4,
6–11, 15–22, 25–26, and 28 of the ’186 patent.3 See
J.A. 15134–41; J.A. 4056–57. The district court action was
stayed pending IPR, and the Patent Trial and Appeal
Board (Board) instituted review of the ’186 patent’s chal-
lenged claims. See J.A. 4132–35; J.A. 4136; J.A. 15002–61.
The Board determined Polygroup had not proven any of the
’186 patent’s challenged claims unpatentable by prepon-
derant evidence. J.A. 15002, 15061. On appeal, we af-
firmed the Board’s determination as to claim 15 of the
’186 patent but vacated and remanded as to all other chal-
lenged claims of the ’186 patent. Polygroup Ltd. MCO v.
2 Quick Set enables users to form simultaneous me-
chanical and electrical connections regardless of the tree’s
orientation through an internal trunk-connection system.
Polygroup Br. 14–15; Willis Br. 14.
3 Three of the four petitions challenging the ’186 pa-
tent were instituted and consolidated into a single petition.
Polygroup Ltd. Mco v. Willis Elec. Co., Ltd., No. IPR2016-
01610, 2020 WL 5985472, at *1 (P.T.A.B. Oct. 8, 2020). The
remaining petition challenging claims 1–28 of the ’186 pa-
tent was not instituted. J.A. 15134.
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Willis Elec. Co., Ltd, 759 F. App’x 934, 943 (Fed. Cir. 2019).
On remand, the Board determined claims 1, 3–4, 6, and 8–9
of the ’186 patent were unpatentable and that the remain-
ing challenged claims were not unpatentable. Polygroup,
2020 WL 5985472, at *1. Polygroup appealed the Board’s
decision declining to hold the remaining challenged claims
unpatentable, and we reversed-in-part, holding claims
10–11, 16, 18–22, 25–26, and 28 are also unpatentable.
Polygroup Ltd. MCO v. Willis Elec. Co., No. 2021-1401,
2022 WL 1183332, at *4–5 (Fed. Cir. Apr. 20, 2022). Fol-
lowing these proceedings, only claims 7, 15, and 17 re-
mained in the district court proceeding.
At the district court, Polygroup filed a Daubert motion
to exclude the opinions of Willis’ damages expert, Michele
Riley, under Federal Rule of Evidence 702. J.A. 4208–18.
The district court denied the motion. J.A. 64–68. Willis
narrowed its case such that only claim 15 of the ’186 patent
was asserted at trial. J.A. 4626–27. The jury returned a
verdict in favor of Willis, finding claim 15 infringed and not
invalid. J.A. 197–202. The jury awarded Willis
$42,494,772 in damages. J.A. 201. Following the verdict,
Polygroup moved for (1) JMOL that claim 15 is obvious,
J.A. 15339–42, and (2) a new trial on damages,
J.A. 15361–77. The district court denied Polygroup’s mo-
tion, reasoning that (1) Polygroup was not entitled to
JMOL because substantial evidence supported the jury’s
presumed fact findings underlying the district court’s con-
clusion of nonobviousness, and that (2) Polygroup’s chal-
lenges to Ms. Riley’s methodology were properly left to the
jury, which had not rendered a damages award so excessive
to warrant a new trial. J.A. 31–33, 44. Polygroup appeals.
We have jurisdiction under 28 U.S.C. § 1295(a)(1).
DISCUSSION
Polygroup argues we should: (1) reverse the district
court’s denial of JMOL of obviousness because no reasona-
ble jury could conclude that claim 15 would not have been
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obvious; or (2) in the alternative, vacate the judgment and
remand for a new trial on damages because Ms. Riley’s
methodologically unsound approaches should have been
excluded. We do not agree.
I. Denial of JMOL of Obviousness
Polygroup argues the district court legally erred in
denying JMOL of obviousness because, in Polygroup’s
view, no reasonable jury could find that a skilled artisan
would not have been motivated to modify the Loomis GKI
Tree, a prior art product, to use coaxial barrel connectors.
We review the denial of JMOL under the law of the re-
gional circuit, here the Eighth Circuit, which reviews such
denials de novo. Agrizap, Inc. v. Woodstream Corp.,
520 F.3d 1337, 1341 (Fed. Cir. 2008); Quiles v. Union Pac.
R.R. Co., 4 F.4th 598, 604 (8th Cir. 2021). JMOL should be
granted when “a party has been fully heard on an issue and
the court finds that a reasonable jury would not have a le-
gally sufficient evidentiary basis to find for the party on
that issue.” Quiles, 4 F.4th at 604 (quoting Fed. R. Civ.
P. 50). We review the district court’s ultimate obviousness
conclusion de novo and the jury’s determination on under-
lying factual findings for substantial evidence. Bos. Sci.
Scimed, Inc. v. Cordis Corp., 554 F.3d 982, 990 (Fed. Cir.
2009). Specifically, “[w]e first presume that the jury re-
solved the underlying factual disputes in favor of the ver-
dict [] and leave those presumed findings undisturbed if
they are supported by substantial evidence.” Kinetic Con-
cepts, Inc. v. Smith & Nephew, Inc., 688 F.3d 1342, 1356–57
(Fed. Cir. 2012) (quoting Jurgens v. McKasy, 927 F.2d
1552, 1557 (Fed. Cir. 1991)) (alterations in original). We
then examine whether the obviousness conclusion is “cor-
rect in light of the presumed jury fact findings.” Kinetic
Concepts, 688 F.3d at 1357 (quoting Jurgens, 927 F.2d at
1557).
Whether a patent is invalid as obvious depends on
(1) the scope and content of the prior art; (2) the differences
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between the claimed invention and the prior art; (3) the
level of ordinary skill in the art; and (4) any relevant objec-
tive considerations. Graham v. John Deere Co., 383 U.S. 1,
17–18 (1966). The Graham analysis is informed by the mo-
tivation-to-combine inquiry, which “implement[s] the Su-
preme Court’s recognition of ‘the importance of guarding
against hindsight’” in evaluating obviousness. DyStar Tex-
tilfarben GmbH & Co. Deutschland KG v. C.H. Patrick Co.,
464 F.3d 1356, 1361 (Fed. Cir. 2006) (quoting Alza Corp. v.
Mylan Lab’ys, Inc., 464 F.3d 1286, 1290 (Fed. Cir. 2006)).
“Whether a skilled artisan would have been motivated to
combine prior art references is a question of fact.” Virtek
Vision Int’l ULC v. Assembly Guidance Sys., Inc., 97 F.4th
882, 886 (Fed. Cir. 2024) (citing Ariosa Diagnostics v. Ver-
inata Health, Inc., 805 F.3d 1359, 1364 (Fed. Cir. 2015)).
Polygroup argues a skilled artisan would have been
motivated to combine the Loomis GKI Tree with coaxial
barrel connectors as an obvious solution to the problem of
powering LEDs in artificial trees, and no reasonable jury
could find otherwise. Polygroup Br. 37–44. It asserts the
Loomis GKI Tree teaches internal power, which would
have put a skilled artisan on notice that integrating elec-
trical connections into an artificial tree was feasible. Poly-
group Br. 39; see J.A. 1814. Both experts agreed that
coaxial barrel connectors, which a skilled artisan would
have understood were “well-known” and “readily availa-
ble,” taught how to power low-voltage LED lights. Poly-
group Br. 38; J.A. 2654–55; J.A. 2292–94. And Polygroup
maintains that both experts agreed the industry trended
toward equipping artificial trees with low-voltage LED
lights. Polygroup Br. 39; J.A. 2673; see J.A. 2329–31. Pol-
ygroup argues these factors would have indisputably moti-
vated a skilled artisan to substitute the coaxial barrel
connector for the then-standard, two-prong plug to power
LED lights on artificial trees. Polygroup Br. 38–39.
As the district court concluded, substantial evidence
supported the jury’s presumed factual finding that a skilled
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artisan would not have been motivated to modify the
Loomis GKI Tree to use coaxial connectors. J.A. 5–6. In
the court’s view, Polygroup “fail[ed] to grapple with the
specific design challenges posed by the [Loomis] GKI
[T]ree” and “offer[ed] little concrete evidence” to show nec-
essary design changes would have fallen within a skilled
artisan’s capability. Id. The court noted Polygroup’s ex-
pert “did not directly address the impact of removing the
[Loomis] GKI [T]ree’s alignment feature or provide any de-
tailed explanation of how the connector housings could
have been modified.” J.A. 6. Willis’ expert testified that
configuring the Loomis GKI Tree with coaxial barrel con-
nectors would have required numerous steps dispelling any
motivation to combine, namely: (1) removing the Loomis
GKI Tree’s notch-and-dimple features and plug-and-socket
connectors; (2) removing the plug-and-socket connectors’
moldings; (3) redesigning the moldings to accommodate co-
axial barrel connectors; and (4) replacing the plug-and-
socket connectors with specially designed and fitted coaxial
electrical contact sets. J.A. 2635; J.A. 4939; see J.A. 1522–
23. A skilled artisan would not have considered using co-
axial barrel connectors, according to Willis’ expert, because
doing so would have “completely go[ne] away from the
[Loomis GKI Tree’s] teachings” on using a notch-and-dim-
ple feature to improve fixed-orientation trees.4
J.A. 2633–34, 2636. Willis’ expert also testified that, even
as the industry trended toward LEDs, a skilled artisan
would have had to select between “nearly an infinite
4 Evidence tending to show a prior art reference
teaches away may also be “relevant to a finding regarding
whether a skilled artisan would be motivated to combine”
references to produce the claimed invention. Apple Inc. v.
Samsung Elecs. Co., 839 F.3d 1034, 1051 n.15 (Fed. Cir.
2016).
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number” of plugs to power low-voltage LEDs. J.A. 2672,
2667–68.
Polygroup offers various reasons why a skilled artisan
would have found the claimed invention obvious despite
Willis’ above evidence suggesting the contrary. Our role is
not to reweigh the evidence. We are narrowly tasked with
determining whether substantial evidence supports the
jury’s presumed factual finding on motivation to combine.
Kinetic Concepts, 688 F.3d at 1356–57. Here, the jury eval-
uated Polygroup’s competing evidence and expert testi-
mony—including that the Loomis GKI Tree taught
internal power, that coaxial barrel connectors were com-
monly used to power LED lights, and that the industry
trended toward using LED lights. J.A. 1814; J.A. 2654–55;
J.A. 2673. The parties had an opportunity to cross-exam-
ine experts and highlight any perceived flaws in the evi-
dence. See J.A. 1411–22; J.A. 2360–409. There is
substantial evidence for the jury to have found that a
skilled artisan would not have been motivated to make the
claimed combination.5 The district court under these cir-
cumstances properly denied JMOL. We affirm the holding
that claim 15 would not have been obvious.
II. Denial of Motion for a New Trial on Damages
We review the denial of a motion for a new trial on
damages under the law of the regional circuit, here the
Eighth Circuit, which reviews denial for abuse of discre-
tion. Exmark Mfg. Co. Inc. v. Briggs & Stratton Power
Prods. Grp., LLC, 879 F.3d 1332, 1347 (Fed. Cir. 2018);
Blair v. Wills, 420 F.3d 823, 829–30 (8th Cir. 2005). We
review for an abuse of discretion the court’s evidentiary
5 Because there is substantial evidence for the jury’s
finding that Polygroup failed to establish a motivation to
combine, we need not address arguments regarding rea-
sonable expectation of success or objective considerations.
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rulings, including those related to the admissibility of dam-
ages-expert evidence. Barrett v. Rhodia, Inc., 606 F.3d 975,
980 (8th Cir. 2010). To the extent the admissibility rulings
depend on patent law standards governing the subject of
the evidence, we apply our own circuit’s law—informed by
other circuits’ decisions but not controlled by the law of the
regional circuit (here, the Eighth Circuit)—in reviewing
those rulings. See Whitserve, LLC v. Comput. Packages,
Inc., 694 F.3d 10, 31 (Fed. Cir. 2012) (applying Federal Cir-
cuit law to evaluate the admissibility of damages expert
testimony in a patent case after acknowledging that
“[w]hen reviewing damages in patent cases, we apply re-
gional circuit law to procedural issues and Federal Circuit
law to substantive and procedural issues pertaining to pa-
tent law”).
At trial, Willis’ expert, Ms. Riley, opined that there
should be a reasonable royalty of $5 per tree based on mul-
tiple methods, including an income-based apportionment
(income approach), a market-based apportionment (market
approach), and a Georgia-Pacific analysis.6 J.A. 1641–70.
By contrast, Polygroup’s expert arrived at a reasonable roy-
alty of $0.25–$0.35 per tree. J.A. 2135; J.A. 2512–13. The
jury awarded approximately $42.5 million, equating to $4
per tree. J.A. 201; J.A. 27.
A. Scope of Recoverable Damages
In assessing a reasonable royalty, recoverable damages
must be apportioned to reflect the value of the patented
feature, rather than the value of the accused product as a
whole. Garretson v. Clark, 111 U.S. 120, 121 (1884). A
reasonable royalty is measured by the “value of what was
6 Ms. Riley calculated a royalty base on a per-tree ba-
sis because she opined Polygroup’s Quick Set Tree is the
smallest salable unit. J.A. 65. Polygroup does not dispute
that characterization. Id.; see J.A. 15194.
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taken . . . under 35 U.S.C. § 284.” Ericsson, Inc. v. D-Link
Sys., Inc., 773 F.3d 1201, 1226 (Fed. Cir. 2014) (internal
quotation marks and citation omitted). Proof of damages
must be “carefully tie[d] . . . to the claimed invention’s foot-
print in the market place.” VirnetX, Inc. v. Cisco Sys., Inc.,
767 F.3d 1308, 1327 (Fed. Cir. 2014) (quoting
ResQNet.com, Inc. v. Lansa, Inc., 594 F.3d 860, 869 (Fed.
Cir. 2010)). In apportioning damages to the claimed inven-
tion, “it is improper to assume that a conventional element
cannot be rendered more valuable by its use in combination
with an invention.” AstraZeneca AB v. Apotex Corp., 782
F.3d 1324, 1338 (Fed. Cir. 2015). As a result, “[i]t is not
the case that the value of all conventional elements must
be subtracted from the value of the patented invention as
a whole when assessing damages.” Id. at 1339.
As a threshold matter, the parties dispute how to un-
derstand the value of claim 15 in light of the fact that
claim 10 was held unpatentable in the IPR. Polygroup ar-
gues that because the Board held claim 10 unpatentable,
the added value of claim 15 is limited to the use of coaxial
barrel connectors themselves. Polygroup Br. 50–51. Willis
responds that the added value is correctly understood as
value attributable to the coaxial barrel connectors of
claim 15, which according to Willis, includes forming a sim-
ultaneous mechanical and electrical connection regardless
of rotational orientation. Willis Br. 33–35. For the reasons
explained below, we conclude there is substantial evidence
supporting Willis’ view of the added value attributable to
the coaxial barrel connectors of claim 15.
This court held that claim 10 was unpatentable on ap-
peal from an IPR. Polygroup, 2022 WL 1183332, at *5. Pol-
ygroup argues that holding confirms the limitations recited
by claim 10 are unpatented features for which Willis can-
not recover damages in subsequent district court litigation.
Polygroup Br. 50–51. As a result, Polygroup maintains
Willis should have apportioned to the incremental value of
claim 15 by removing any damages attributable to the
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limitations claim 15 incorporated from claim 10. Under
that theory, Willis’ recoverable damages were limited to
the use of coaxial barrel connectors themselves, and no
more. We do not agree. As Willis notes, the cited IPR de-
termination was subject to the broadest reasonable inter-
pretation standard for claim construction, which resulted
in a construction of claim 10 different from the one the dis-
trict court reached under the Phillips standard. In partic-
ular, the district court construed claim 10 to require
forming a simultaneous mechanical and electrical connec-
tion regardless of rotational orientation (i.e., doing so in
one step), whereas the construction applicable in the IPR
did not require this one-step functionality. Compare
J.A. 63, with Polygroup, 2022 WL 1183332, at *4–5. Thus,
neither the Board nor the district court found claim 10 un-
patentable under the district court’s construction. For at
least this reason, the IPR determination does not preclude
Willis from relying on the one-step functionality of claim 10
as part of the value attributable to the coaxial barrel con-
nectors of claim 15.
Ultimately, the parties agree Ms. Riley should at least
apportion to the added value attributable to the coaxial
barrel connectors of claim 15. Polygroup Br. 50–51; Willis
Br. 58–59. They disagree, however, on how that value
should be understood. What value is attributable to the
coaxial barrel connectors is a question of fact for the jury.
Summit 6, LLC v. Samsung Elecs. Co., 802 F.3d 1283,
1296–99 (Fed. Cir. 2015). Here, Ms. Riley testified that she
apportioned to the value claim 15 added to the invention as
a whole, which is all the law requires. J.A. 1642;
J.A. 1672–73; AstraZeneca, 782 F.3d at 1338. The jury
credited that testimony in the face of competing evidence.
J.A. 2458–60. Ms. Riley’s testimony was substantial evi-
dence supporting the jury’s presumed fact finding that the
value of the coaxial barrel connectors includes the for-
mation of mechanical and electrical connections at the
same time, regardless of rotational orientation. J.A. 1642;
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J.A. 1672–73. With that in mind, we turn to Polygroup’s
challenges to the admissibility of Willis’ expert testimony
on damages, starting with the district court’s role in han-
dling such disputes.
B. The District Court’s Gatekeeping Role
We recently clarified the scope of Rule 702 and the dis-
trict court’s gatekeeping role in assessing the admissibility
of expert testimony in EcoFactor, Inc. v. Google LLC,
137 F.4th 1333, 1338–40 (Fed. Cir. 2025). Federal Rule of
Evidence 702 governs the admissibility of expert testi-
mony. The rule states:
A witness who is qualified as an expert by
knowledge, skill, experience, training, or education
may testify in the form of an opinion or otherwise
if the proponent demonstrates to the court that it
is more likely than not that:
(a) the expert’s scientific, technical, or other
specialized knowledge will help the trier of fact
to understand the evidence or to determine a
fact in issue;
(b) the testimony is based on sufficient facts or
data;
(c) the testimony is the product of reliable prin-
ciples and methods; and
(d) the expert’s opinion reflects a reliable appli-
cation of the principles and methods to the facts
of the case.
Fed. R. Evid. 702 (2023).
As the Supreme Court explained in Daubert, Rule 702
assigns trial courts a “gatekeeping role” to ensure admitted
expert testimony is relevant and reliable. Daubert v. Mer-
rell Dow Pharms., Inc., 509 U.S. 579, 597 (1993). That role
requires courts to evaluate whether an expert’s testimony
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has “a reliable basis in the knowledge and experience of
[the relevant] discipline,” particularly where the expert’s
factual basis, methodology, or application is sufficiently
called into question. Kumho Tire Co. v. Carmichael,
526 U.S. 137, 149 (1999) (alteration in original) (quoting
Daubert, 509 U.S. at 592). Rule 702 was amended in 2023
to clarify that gatekeeping function, emphasizing that
courts must exclude expert testimony when the proponent
fails to establish the reliability requirements by a prepon-
derance of the evidence. Fed. R. Evid. 702 advisory com-
mittee’s note to 2023 amendment.
At the same time, Rule 702 draws a critical distinction
between admissibility, which is for the court, and weight
and credibility, which are for the jury. See Fed. R. Evid.
104(a) (“The court must decide any preliminary question
about whether a witness is qualified, a privilege exists, or
evidence is admissible.”). As the Advisory Committee ob-
served, many courts have incorrectly applied Rules 702 and
104(a) by holding that “the critical questions of the suffi-
ciency of an expert’s basis, and the application of the ex-
pert’s methodology, are questions of weight and not
admissibility.” Fed. R. Evid. 702 advisory committee’s note
to 2023 amendment. We previously explained “the ques-
tion of whether the expert is credible or the opinion is cor-
rect is generally a question for the fact finder, not the
court.” Summit 6, 802 F.3d at 1296. When the credibility
of an expert’s testimony is called into question, “[v]igorous
cross-examination, presentation of contrary evidence, and
careful instruction on the burden of proof” remain the ap-
propriate means to test “shaky but admissible evidence.”
Id. (quoting Daubert, 509 U.S. at 596); see also McCullock
v. H.B. Fuller Co., 61 F.3d 1038, 1044 (2d Cir. 1995); United
States v. Morgan, 45 F.4th 192, 201 (D.C. Cir. 2022); Puga
v. RCX Sols., Inc., 922 F.3d 285, 294 (5th Cir. 2019); Engilis
v. Monsanto Co., 151 F.4th 1040, 1050 (9th Cir. 2025).
The distinction is particularly important in the context
of patent damages because estimating a reasonable royalty
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“necessarily involves an element of approximation and un-
certainty.” EcoFactor, 137 F.4th at 1340 (Fed. Cir. 2025)
(citing Unisplay, S.A. v. Am. Elec. Sign Co., 69 F.3d 512,
517 (Fed. Cir. 1995)); see Del Mar Avionics, Inc. v. Quinton
Instrument Co., 836 F.2d 1320, 1327 (Fed. Cir. 1987) (quot-
ing Story Parchment Co. v. Paterson Parchment Paper Co.,
282 U.S. 555, 563 (1931)) (when calculating damages for
patent infringement, it is sufficient to “show the extent of
the damages as a matter of just and reasonable inference,
although the result be only approximate”); Faulkner v.
Gibbs, 199 F.2d 635, 639 (9th Cir. 1952) (“The property loss
of a patentee from infringement . . . can only be determined
by reasonable approximation.”); 60 Am. Jur. 2d Patents
§ 832 (“The determination of a reasonable royalty requires
a consideration of all factors pertinent to the case rather
than by use of a mathematical formula.”); Note, Recovery
in Patent Infringement Suits, 60 Colum. L. Rev. 840, 849
(1960) (“The courts have recognized that a reasonable roy-
alty is only an approximation of damages and is designed
to be equitable to the particular parties before the court.”).
For more than a hundred years, courts have recognized a
reasonable royalty as an accepted measure of patent in-
fringement damages, a principle codified in 35 U.S.C.
§ 284. See, e.g., Dowagiac Mfg. Co. v. Minn. Moline Plow
Co., 235 U.S. 641, 648 (1915); Munger v. Firestone Tire &
Rubber Co., 261 F. 921, 922 (2d Cir. 1919). Determining
that royalty requires a jury to “find the royalty that would
have been agreed to in a hypothetical negotiation between
a willing licensee and willing licensors at the time infringe-
ment began.” Fujifilm Corp. v. Benun, 605 F.3d 1366, 1372
(Fed. Cir. 2010). That negotiation is inherently counterfac-
tual: it requires envisioning licensing terms the parties
would have agreed to in a world where no such agreement
ever occurred. “The hypothetical negotiation is hypothet-
ical not only because, in the typical case, no successful pre-
infringement negotiation ever occurred, but also because
the negotiation is constructed on hypothetical assump-
tions.” Aqua Shield v. Inter Pool Cover Team, 774 F.3d 766,
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771 (Fed. Cir. 2014); see also Panduit Corp. v. Stahlin Bros.
Fibre Works, 575 F.2d 1152, 1159 (6th Cir. 1978) (“Deter-
mination of a ‘reasonable royalty’ after infringement
. . . rests on a legal fiction.”); Rite-Hite Corp. v. Kelley Co.,
56 F.3d 1538, 1554 (Fed. Cir. 1995) (describing a reasona-
ble royalty as “the result of a supposed meeting between
the patentee and the infringer”). As such, the negotiation
necessarily makes assumptions about market conditions,
technological value, and bargaining positions that cannot
be proven with mathematical certainty. See Georgia-Pa-
cific Corp. v. U.S. Plywood Corp., 318 F. Supp. 1116, 1120
(S.D.N.Y. 1970); Whitserve, 694 F.3d at 31 (noting “mathe-
matical precision is not required”); Faulkner, 199 F.2d
at 639 (“There is no mathematical formula for the determi-
nation of a reasonable royalty.”); Brian J. Love, Patentee
Overcompensation and the Entire Market Value Rule,
60 Stan. L. Rev. 263, 267–68 (2007) (noting the “fictitious
negotiation is notably distorted from reality” because
“courts presume that the patent is valid and covers the in-
fringer’s product” and “the very existence of the infringe-
ment suit proves that the parties were in fact not able to
strike a bargain prior to infringement or at anytime after-
wards.”). The resulting royalty is therefore not an exact
measure, but an informed estimate designed to reflect the
economic value attributable to the patented invention.
Cincinnati Car Co. v. N.Y. Rapid Transit Corp., 66 F.2d
592, 595 (2d Cir. 1933) (“The whole notion of a reasonable
royalty is a device in aid of justice, by which that which is
really incalculable shall be approximated . . . . It is no
more impossible to estimate than the damages in many
other torts, as for example, personal injuries with their ac-
companying pain.”).
Recognizing the uncertainty built into the reasonable
royalty negotiation, our precedent has attempted to guide
this hypothetical construct using the Georgia-Pacific fac-
tors. See, e.g., Summit 6, 802 F.3d at 1297–98; i4i Ltd.
P’ship v. Microsoft Corp., 598 F.3d 831, 853 (Fed. Cir.
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2010), aff’d, 564 U.S. 91 (2011); Micro Chem., Inc. v. Lex-
tron, Inc., 317 F.3d 1387, 1393–94 (Fed. Cir. 2003). Those
factors do not provide a formula; rather, they provide a
structured framework for evaluating economic and com-
mercial considerations relevant to the negotiation, includ-
ing the importance of the patented technology, comparable
licensing practices, and the advantages the invention pro-
vided over alternatives. Georgia-Pacific, 318 F. Supp.
at 1120. The framework contemplates qualitative and
quantitative evidence because the factors cannot generally
be reduced to precise numerical values. See id.; Whitserve,
694 F.3d at 31. Consistent with 35 U.S.C. § 284, the hypo-
thetical negotiation’s goal is to arrive at a royalty that
fairly captures the value of the claimed invention as the
parties would have agreed upon had they successfully ne-
gotiated a licensing agreement. Lucent Techs., Inc. v. Gate-
way, Inc., 580 F.3d 1301, 1324–25 (Fed. Cir. 2009).
When undertaking the fiction of the hypothetical nego-
tiation, the record may support a range of reasonable out-
comes sufficiently provable by any one of multiple reliable
methods rather than a single correct figure. Apple Inc. v.
Motorola, Inc., 757 F.3d 1286, 1315 (Fed. Cir. 2014). Dam-
ages experts may accordingly reach different reasonable
royalty conclusions based on the same underlying facts.
See Fed. R. Evid. 702 advisory committee’s note to 2000
amendment (“[Rule 702] is broad enough to permit testi-
mony that is the product of competing principles or meth-
ods in the same field of expertise.”). That competing
experts reached different royalty conclusions does not es-
tablish the unreliability of either analysis; disagreement
alone, without a separate basis for finding unreliability,
merely leaves the question of which analysis to credit to the
jury. See, e.g., S.E.C. v. Todd, 642 F.3d 1207, 1217 (9th Cir.
2011) (quoting Dorn v. Burlington N. Santa Fe R.R. Co.,
397 F.3d 1183, 1196 (9th Cir. 2005)) (“If two contradictory
expert witnesses can offer testimony that is reliable and
helpful, both are admissible and it is the function of the
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finder of fact, not the trial court, to determine which is the
more trustworthy and credible.”); Baugh v. Cuprum S.A. de
C.V., 845 F.3d 838, 847 (7th Cir. 2017) (“Indeed, it is often
the case that experts reach conflicting conclusions based on
applying different but nevertheless reliable methodologies
to a set of partially known facts.”); United States v. Hodge,
933 F.3d 468, 477 (5th Cir. 2019) (quoting Fed. R. Evid. 702
advisory committee’s note to 2000 amendment) (“Even
when a court ‘rules that an expert’s testimony is reliable,
this does not necessarily mean that contradictory expert
testimony is unreliable.’”); United States v. Mitchell, 365
F.3d 215, 245 (3d Cir. 2004) (“Experts with diametrically
opposed opinions may nonetheless both have good grounds
for their views, and a district court may not make winners
and losers through its choice of which side’s experts to ad-
mit, when all experts are qualified.”); 4 Weinstein’s Federal
Evidence § 702.05[3] (2026) (“A trial court’s determination
that the proffered testimony of one expert witness is relia-
ble and helpful does not necessarily mean that the contra-
dictory testimony of another witness, concerning the same
subject matter but using a different methodology, is not
also reliable and helpful.”).
C. Damages Methodology
Under 35 U.S.C. § 284, “[u]pon finding for the claimant
the court shall award the claimant damages adequate to
compensate for the infringement, but in no event less than
a reasonable royalty for the use made of the invention by
the infringer . . . .” A damages award under this statute
“must reflect the value attributable to the infringing fea-
tures of the product, and no more.” Commonwealth Sci. &
Indus. Rsch. Organisation v. Cisco Sys., Inc., 809 F.3d
1295, 1301 (Fed. Cir. 2015) (quoting Ericsson, 773 F.3d
at 1226). Where the accused product incorporates compo-
nents beyond the patented technology, damages expert
opinions must apportion, or separate, “the value of the al-
legedly infringing features from the value of all other fea-
tures.” Commonwealth Sci., 809 F.3d at 1301 (citing
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VirnetX, 767 F.3d at 1329). When “multi-component prod-
ucts are accused of infringement, the royalty base should
not be larger than the smallest salable unit embodying the
patented invention.” Power Integrations, Inc. v. Fairchild
Semiconductor Int’l, Inc., 904 F.3d 965, 977 (Fed. Cir.
2018). Litigants routinely apportion to the smallest salable
unit based on “the infringer’s projections of profit for the
infringing product.” Lucent Techs., 580 F.3d at 1324.
To arrive at her reasonable royalty, Ms. Riley em-
ployed two independent methods to determine a reasonable
royalty range that a hypothetical licensor and licensee
would have agreed to, then selected a specific reasonable
royalty within that range using the Georgia-Pacific factors.
Her first method, an income approach apportioned to
claim 15, analyzed profit premiums associated with Willis’
One Plug Trees and Polygroup’s Quick Set Trees to arrive
at a reasonable royalty range of $4.30–$20. J.A. 1643–52.
Her second method, a market approach apportioned to
claim 15, evaluated comparable licenses to arrive at a rea-
sonable royalty range of $2–$5, which she combined with
her income approach to arrive at an expanded reasonable
royalty range of $2–$20. J.A. 1652–55. And finally, she
applied the Georgia-Pacific factors to select the reasonable
royalty within the apportionment-based reasonable royalty
range, ultimately arriving at a $5 reasonable royalty.
J.A. 1655–70. Polygroup does not contend any of these ap-
proaches is categorically improper; rather, it argues that
each was applied unreliably to the facts of the case.
The district court denied Polygroup’s motion for a new
trial on damages, crediting Ms. Riley’s apportionment and
Georgia-Pacific analyses. J.A. 21–27, 30–31. It held her
damages opinion, “while not bulletproof, incorporated reli-
able apportionment methodologies and was grounded in
sufficiently comparable licenses and financial data to pro-
vide a reasonable basis for the jury’s award.” J.A. 31. We
see no abuse of discretion in the district court’s determina-
tions on each point.
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Polygroup argues that Ms. Riley’s testimony should
have been excluded because she did not adequately explain
her methodology to the jury. See, e.g., Polygroup Br. 51–53,
58–59. Those complaints conflate admissibility questions
for the court with factual questions for the jury. Rule 702
requires district courts evaluating admissibility to exercise
their gatekeeping role by determining whether the propo-
nent of expert testimony has shown by preponderant evi-
dence that the testimony is relevant and reliable. Fed. R.
Evid. 702 advisory committee’s note to 2023 amendment.
As the gatekeeper, the district court has the exclusive role
of assessing the reliability of the testimony based on the
full breadth of information before it. Once a district court
has determined the expert’s methodology is reliable, chal-
lenged testimony does not become unreliable simply be-
cause a party believes an expert should have presented
information to the jury differently. The district court as-
sesses the reliability of the expert’s methodology on the ba-
sis of all the evidence before the court, which, at the time
of the motion for a new trial, included both Ms. Riley’s tes-
timony at trial and her expert report. Ultimately, the dis-
trict court found no methodological flaw in Ms. Riley’s
damages analysis, underscoring that Polygroup’s critiques
went to how the jury might weigh the evidence, not
whether the methodology satisfied Rule 702 in the first in-
stance. J.A. 24, 26–27. For the reasons discussed below,
we agree.
1. Income-Based Apportionment
Under her income approach, Ms. Riley calculated prof-
its for both Willis’ patented One Plug Trees and Poly-
group’s infringing Quick Set Trees to determine a
reasonable royalty range. Calculating the upper bound of
that range, Ms. Riley compared the profit margins on One
Plug Trees with those of similar trees lacking the patented
coaxial barrel connector to show Willis earned more from
patented trees than non-patented trees. Specifically, she
determined Willis’ One Plug Trees earned a profit of $24,
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while non-One Plug Trees earned a profit of $4, leading to
an incremental profit premium for the One Plug Tree of
$20. J.A. 1644; J.A. 12979. Calculating the lower bound,
Ms. Riley similarly compared Polygroup’s Quick Set Trees
having coaxial barrel connectors to those without such con-
nectors, leading to an incremental profit premium of $4.30.
J.A. 1652. Accordingly, she determined $4.30–$20 was a
reasonable royalty range under this approach. Id.
The district court upheld Ms. Riley’s income approach
because it “properly focused on the profits attributable to
the One Plug feature that embodies the patented coaxial
connector technology.” J.A 22–23. The court further found
that Polygroup’s criticisms of her approach went to the
weight of her testimony rather than its admissibility.
J.A. 24 (citing Summit 6, 802 F.3d at 1296). We agree.
a. One Plug Trees
Polygroup argues Ms. Riley’s income approach improp-
erly skewed the damages horizon for Willis’ One Plug Trees
and Polygroup’s Quick Set Trees because she did not ade-
quately apportion damages to the value of claim 15. Poly-
group Br. 52–57. Starting with the One Plug Tree,
Polygroup points out the district court agreed “not all One
Plug trees practiced claim 15” because “some used non-co-
axial connectors.” J.A. 7. Polygroup argues this confirms
One Plug Trees are not coextensive with coaxial connect-
ors; they simply encompass the unpatented concept of an
internally powered tree. Thus, to apportion correctly, Pol-
ygroup contends Ms. Riley should have compared One Plug
Trees using coaxial connectors to those using two-prong
plug connectors. Oral Arg. 12:17–27. Polygroup also ar-
gues Willis failed to present evidence showing customers
favored One Plug Trees practicing claim 15 over otherwise
identical trees equipped with non-coaxial connectors. Fur-
ther compounding Ms. Riley’s error, in Polygroup’s view, is
that many One Plug trees contained premium features
non-One Plug trees lacked, leading to an artificially high
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profit margin. According to Polygroup, these alleged de-
fects in Ms. Riley’s testimony collectively warranted exclu-
sion. We do not agree.
Polygroup’s premise that Ms. Riley failed to exclude
non-coaxial One Plug Trees from her income analysis is
contradicted by the record. Her expert report, which was
before the district court, explains she filtered the One Plug
data set to exclude models she concluded did not practice
claim 15 (i.e., use non-coaxial connectors). J.A. 4486 n.9
(“Seven tree models branded as ‘One Plug’ and sold by Wil-
lis in 2012 did not fully embody the claims of the ’186 and
’187 patents due to their use of one-directional connectors.
Therefore, these trees – for the purposes of this analysis –
are not identified as ‘One Plug Products.’”). Upon confront-
ing this fact in oral argument, Polygroup did not continue
to insist Ms. Riley used incorrect data at trial; instead, Pol-
ygroup argued it was improper for Ms. Riley not to ex-
pressly tell the jury how she filtered the data because it
was a “relevant fact.” Oral Arg. 52:02–58. But testimony
based on correct underlying data is not rendered inadmis-
sible merely because the expert could have described her
characterization to the jury more precisely. Ms. Riley ex-
plained in her expert report that she did not include One
Plug products unless they had coaxial connectors (and thus
fell within claim 15). J.A. 4486 n.9. The jury did not have
to be told what Ms. Riley meant by One Plug products—the
judge was told, and it is the judge who assesses reliability.
It was clear to the district court when assessing the relia-
bility of Ms. Riley’s methodology that Ms. Riley did not in-
clude in her analysis trees that fell outside the scope of
claim 15. Id. We see no abuse of discretion in the district
court allowing this testimony.
Polygroup’s argument that Ms. Riley’s failure to ac-
count for other high-end features commanding their own
profit premiums renders her testimony unreliable fails for
several reasons. Ms. Riley’s expert report confirms pre-
mium features were not limited to One Plug Trees; certain
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non-One Plug Trees included those features too.
J.A. 4480–86 (listing sales to retailers of One Plug and non-
One Plug Trees varying by shape, size, and color-changing
capability, among other features). To account for this,
Ms. Riley averaged prices across product lines when com-
paring profit margins for One Plug Trees with and without
coaxial barrel connectors. And she presented those aver-
ages to the jury grouped by each year during the damages
period. J.A. 12988. Whether averaging was the best ap-
proach is a matter on which reasonable minds could differ,
but it does not undermine the reliability of her methodol-
ogy to the point of exclusion. Rule 702 does not require a
damages expert to account for every conceivable variation
among products, nor does it demand mathematical exact-
ness in an area necessarily involving “approximation and
uncertainty.” EcoFactor, 137 F.4th at 1340 (citation omit-
ted); see i4i, 598 F.3d at 855–56 (even crediting the argu-
ment that an expert “could have used other data in his
calculations,” the “existence of other facts . . . does not
mean that the facts used failed to meet the minimum
standards of relevance or reliability”). Differences among
products included in an income-based damages analysis,
even if only minute, will frequently exist. No doubt Ms.
Riley’s averaging could be challenged, but the district court
did not err in holding that the appropriate avenue for such
a challenge was cross-examination and competing evi-
dence, not exclusion. i4i, 598 F.3d at 856 (holding that
where the facts relied on by the expert “had a sufficient
nexus to the relevant market, the parties, and the alleged
infringement” even though “more (or different) data might
have resulted in a ‘better’ or more ‘accurate’ estimate in the
absolute sense, . . . [q]uestions about what facts are most
relevant or reliable to calculating a reasonable royalty are
for the jury”) (internal citations omitted).
When reasonable minds can differ about the methodol-
ogy, we cannot say it was an abuse of discretion to allow
the testimony. See, e.g., City of Pomona v. SQM N. Am.
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Corp., 750 F.3d 1036, 1049 (9th Cir. 2014) (ruling that
when an expert’s application of a reasonable methodology
was merely “shaky,” it should not have been excluded, but
rather admitted and subjected to attack by cross-examina-
tion and contrary evidence); Summit 6, 802 F.3d at 1296
(same). “Normally, failure to include variables will affect
the analysis’ probativeness, not its admissibility.”
Bazemore v. Friday, 478 U.S. 385, 400 (1986) (Brennan, J.,
concurring in part); see also Barry v. DePuy Synthes Cos.,
164 F.4th 896, 912 (Fed. Cir. 2026) (the challenges raised
to “purported flaws” in an expert’s methodology “go to the
weight the jury might accord to that evidence and not to its
admissibility”); Sec’y, United States Dep’t of Lab. v. E. Penn
Mfg. Co., Inc., 123 F.4th 643, 651 (3d Cir. 2024) (“[D]espite
any methodological flaws, Dr. Radwin’s testimony was ad-
missible . . . [because the] challenges [to] how he calculated
and interpreted the results [came within the principle that]
such a challenge ordinarily goes to the weight of the evi-
dence, not to its admissibility.”) (internal quotation marks
omitted); Karlo v. Pittsburgh Glass Works, LLC, 849 F.3d
61, 83 (3d Cir. 2017) (“The question of whether a study’s
results were properly calculated or interpreted ordinarily
goes to the weight of the evidence, not to its admissibil-
ity.”). Whether Ms. Riley’s averaging failed to adequately
account for particular premium features goes to the weight
to accord to her testimony, not its admissibility; “any fail-
ure . . . to control for certain variables” on the facts here
is “best addressed by cross examination and not by exclu-
sion.” ActiveVideo Networks, Inc. v. Verizon Commc’ns,
Inc., 694 F.3d 1312, 1333 (Fed. Cir. 2012). There was thus
no abuse of discretion in the court allowing this testimony.
That is particularly so because Willis provided addi-
tional evidence that customers valued the One Plug Tree
for its coaxial connectors as opposed to other features. For
example, the sole inventor of the ’186 patent testified that
a retailer complained about the fixed-orientation design
and “always want[ed] to have the coaxial design.”
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J.A. 1569–70. A consumer testified One Plug’s coaxial con-
nectors “drove sales” by making tree assembly easier.
J.A. 2238–39. Another witness confirmed that One Plug
Trees earned 20–30% higher profit margins than their non-
One Plug counterparts, owing to the “presence or absence
of the One Plug feature.” J.A. 2260–61. Ms. Riley testified
that One Plug Tree sales eclipsed non-One Plug Tree sales
over time, demonstrating the patented feature’s popularity
among consumers. J.A. 1658–59. And Ms. Riley’s expert
report cites customer feedback describing the two-prong
Loomis GKI Tree as a “nightmare” to assemble. J.A. 4392
¶ 274.
We see no abuse of discretion in admitting Ms. Riley’s
testimony regarding her One Plug Tree income approach.
Polygroup’s criticism of Ms. Riley’s approach and dataset
presents matters of fact for the jury. The district court
could properly find her opinion reliable despite the criti-
cism.
b. Quick Set Trees
Polygroup argues Ms. Riley’s income approach directed
to Quick Set Trees, which resulted in her opinion that these
trees had a $4.30 average profit margin, is equally unreli-
able. Polygroup Br. 54–57. Polygroup asserts she improp-
erly relied on quotes, rather than Polygroup’s actual
revenue or profit margin, to calculate an average incremen-
tal profit margin for the Quick Set Tree. See J.A. 1649. Ac-
cording to Polygroup, Ms. Riley failed to account for the
fact that customers regularly negotiated the price down-
ward, and in using an average, she inaccurately assumed
trees of varying heights with different profit margins sold
in equal amounts. See J.A. 2134, 2169–70. Polygroup
claims that, like with her One Plug Tree analysis, Ms. Ri-
ley ignored the contribution of other features typically
packaged with Quick Set Trees that would have increased
profits for reasons unrelated to the coaxial connectors. See
J.A. 1299–1300. Taken together, Polygroup argues
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Ms. Riley’s approaches failed to properly isolate the value
of coaxial barrel connectors as opposed to other unpatented
features, undermining the credibility and reliability of her
apportionment.
Polygroup’s criticisms of Ms. Riley’s Quick Set Tree
analysis concern how she modeled profitability, not
whether her opinion rested on a factual premise the record
affirmatively disproved. Polygroup faults Ms. Riley for re-
lying on quoted prices rather than realized revenues or
profit margins, but Ms. Riley testified Polygroup does not
track transaction-level costs in a manner that would enable
her to calculate actual profit margins for infringing Quick
Set Trees. J.A. 1643–44. In the absence of such data,
Ms. Riley reasonably relied on available pricing infor-
mation as a proxy for profitability. J.A. 1649, 1651–52 (re-
lying on an assessment of nearly 800 customers quotes for
the Quick Set Trees); J.A. 4339–40 ¶¶ 143–46; J.A. 12832.
Whether customer price quotes are an appropriate proxy
for realized margins is a fact question for the jury, not a
ground for exclusion under Rule 702. See i4i, 598 F.3d
at 856. Similarly, the effect of customers’ routine negotia-
tion speaks to how closely Ms. Riley’s estimates reflected
actual realized prices, not to whether her methodology was
fundamentally unreliable. In any event, Ms. Riley ex-
plained she accounted for this too. J.A. 1651 (“[C]ustomer
negotiations go on all the time. And when Polygroup will
quote its customers a price for the Quick Set Tree, we cap-
tured it and could determine the profitability that they
were earning. . . .”).
For the reasons already addressed, Polygroup’s criti-
cism of Ms. Riley’s use of averages across products likewise
did not prevent the district court from finding that her tes-
timony was shown to be reliable and admitting it.
J.A. 4341; J.A. 12832. Her failure to, for example, account
for other features in particular Quick Set Trees does not
render her testimony so methodologically flawed as to war-
rant exclusion. Reasonable minds may disagree on
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whether the assumptions underlying her averaging meth-
odology sufficiently approximate market reality, but that
is a fact question for the jury, not a basis for excluding ex-
pert testimony altogether. City of Pomona, 750 F.3d
at 1049; Ferebee v. Chevron Chem. Co., 736 F.2d 1529, 1535
(D.C. Cir. 1984). Exploring such distinctions is entirely ap-
propriate on cross-examination and goes ultimately to
credibility, not admissibility. Ms. Riley’s expert report, for
example, relied upon 783 Polygroup price quotes to custom-
ers and subsequent negotiations with customers, which de-
lineated between trees with the Quick Set feature and
those without, demonstrating that there was a premium
for the Quick Set feature which made her $4.30 per tree
approximation reasonable. J.A. 4340–41 (Ms. Riley’s ex-
pert report detailing price premium for Polygroup trees
with and without the Quick Set feature broken down by
tree height); J.A. 15371–72 (relying upon Polygroup docu-
ments with price quotes, Ms. Riley testified that Polygroup
offered to add the Quick Set feature for between $3.83 and
$11.75 per tree based on tree height, and after subtracting
the $3.50/tree cost for the Quick Set feature, arrived at a
Polygroup profit margin of $0.35–$8.25 per tree (again tak-
ing height into account)); J.A. 1674. “Where the methodol-
ogy is reasonable and its data or evidence are sufficiently
tied to the facts of the case, the gatekeeping role of the
court is satisfied, and the inquiry on the correctness of the
methodology and of the results produced thereunder be-
longs to the factfinder.” Summit 6, 802 F.3d at 1296.
Willis also presented evidence showing Ms. Riley suffi-
ciently apportioned to the value of claim 15 and accounted
for differences between Polygroup trees with and without
the infringing Quick Set feature. For instance, Ms. Riley
compared Quick Set Trees with coaxial barrel connectors
against those without such connectors to derive her incre-
mental profit premium. J.A. 1647–52; J.A. 4339–41
¶¶ 143–46. She testified that Polygroup’s own surveys
showed customers were willing to pay more for the Quick
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Set feature because they viewed it as appealing.
J.A. 2144–46; J.A. 12829; J.A. 12802. She testified that
Polygroup’s Quick Set Trees outsold non-Quick Set Trees.
J.A. 1659; J.A. 12989. And Polygroup’s CEO testified that
the Quick Set feature’s rotationally independent design
marked a significant improvement over the Loomis GKI
Tree’s fixed-orientation design because he “like[d] the fact
that you can plug it in any direction and start the insertion
in any direction.” J.A. 1732–33. This is apportionment to
claim 15 as it is directly related to the advantages of coaxial
connectors over fixed alignment—the enabling of rota-
tional independence.
To the extent Polygroup disputes inferences Ms. Riley
drew from that evidence, those disputes concern the weight
of her testimony, not its admissibility. Polygroup’s objec-
tions to her Quick Set Tree analysis identify judgment
calls, assumptions, and modeling choices in a domain of
“approximation and uncertainty” that Polygroup believes
should have been made differently. EcoFactor, 137 F.4th
at 1340 (citation omitted). Those objections “go to the
weight to be afforded the testimony and not its admissibil-
ity.” ActiveVideo, 694 F.3d at 1333. We cannot say, there-
fore, that the district court abused its discretion in
admitting testimony regarding Ms. Riley’s Quick Set Tree
income approach.
2. Market-Based Apportionment
Under her market approach, Ms. Riley examined five
comparable licenses. J.A. 1652–53. First, a 2015 license
between H.S. Craft and Willis providing a royalty of $2 per
tree. J.A. 4775–77. Second, a 2008 license between GKI
and Loominocity with a 5% royalty rate. J.A. 4782–88.
Third, a 2016 license between Boston Warehouse and
Loominocity with a 5% royalty rate. J.A. 4796–808.
Fourth, a 2015 license between Polygroup and Loominocity
with a 5% royalty rate. J.A. 1654; see J.A. 12984. And fi-
nally, a 2016 license between Polygroup and Seasons Four
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with a 5% royalty rate. J.A. 1654; see J.A. 12984. Applying
those 5% royalty rates to Polygroup’s average selling price
of $100 per tree, Ms. Riley arrived at a reasonable royalty
of $5 per tree. J.A. 1654.
Polygroup argues Ms. Riley’s market approach is
flawed, and her testimony should have been excluded be-
cause the licenses she relied upon are not comparable for a
variety of reasons. Polygroup argues that the H.S. Craft
license was “the most significant” to her analysis, yet
Ms. Riley failed to account for the fact that, in addition to
the ’186 patent, the license included two other patents and
five pending patent applications across three patent fami-
lies. Even if that license were comparable, Polygroup
points out that it included a royalty of only $2 per tree, well
below the verdict’s $4 per-unit royalty. The other licenses,
according to Polygroup, were not comparable because they
did not include rights to the ’186 patent. Polygroup ex-
plains the master agreement between GKI and Loominoc-
ity included a 5% royalty rate for developing new products,
not for improving existing products. J.A. 4782–88. Poly-
group notes the two agreements between Polygroup and
Mr. Loomis (or one of his companies) were not patent li-
censes, but rather concept option agreements that re-
warded Mr. Loomis only for developing a new concept.
J.A. 1686; see J.A. 12984. And finally, Polygroup high-
lights the 5% royalty rate in the agreement between Boston
Warehouse and Loominocity reflected a continuation of an
existing relationship on historical terms. J.A. 1856–57;
J.A. 4796–808. These licenses cannot support a reliable
market-based apportionment, according to Polygroup, be-
cause only the H.S. Craft agreement included rights to the
’186 patent.
The district court determined Ms. Riley’s market ap-
proach was reliable despite acknowledging “some doubts
about the comparability of the licenses” she considered be-
cause her analysis was not so unreliable as to warrant
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exclusion. J.A. 23, 31. We see no abuse of discretion in this
conclusion.
As an initial matter, Polygroup’s claim that Ms. Riley
testified that the H.S. Craft license was “the most signifi-
cant” to her analysis is not supported by the record.7 In-
stead, when asked which agreements were most significant
to her analysis, she stated that she considered the H.S.
Craft agreement and four other agreements important.
J.A. 1653 (trial testimony); J.A. 4368 (expert report). At
trial, Ms. Riley testified that the H.S. Craft license was a
“little bit different.” J.A. 1653. She explained that it was
a short-term license (“less than two years”) and not to a
competitor. Id. To the extent Polygroup argues her testi-
mony lacked sufficient detail, Ms. Riley’s expert report ac-
counted for those differences and others more fully in
assessing license comparability.8 J.A. 4350–51 ¶¶ 169,
172. She explained the H.S. Craft license was short term,
less than 2 years. J.A. 4350 ¶ 168. She explained H.S.
Craft, unlike Polygroup, was a “friendly competitor” that
typically marketed to a higher tier and therefore did not
compete with Willis. Id. at ¶ 169. Polygroup, in contrast,
was Willis’ “largest competitor.” J.A. 4351 ¶ 172. As a
7 To the extent that the district court identified the
H.S. Craft license as the most significant, that characteri-
zation parroted Polygroup’s language and is not supported
by the record. J.A. 25.
8 We are reviewing the district court’s denial of a mo-
tion for a new trial based upon its admission of Ms. Riley’s
testimony. The assessment of the reliability of her meth-
odology includes everything before the district court, not
just her testimony before the jury. In this way, the Daubert
assessment differs from a challenge to the sufficiency of the
evidence upon which a verdict was rendered, which would,
in contrast, be based only upon the evidence presented at
trial.
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result, the report explained Willis risked losing a larger
magnitude of sales from licensing its technology to its big-
gest competitor. Id. The report further explained that the
H.S. Craft license was entered into while Polygroup’s IPRs
challenging the validity of Willis’ One Plug patents artifi-
cially depressed the patents’ value. J.A. 4350–51 ¶ 171.
Finally, the report explained that the licensing rate was
artificially depressed because Polygroup was selling lower-
priced infringing trees without paying a royalty and be-
cause Willis could not afford to go after other infringers
while in this dispute with Polygroup. J.A. 4351 ¶ 173. Ms.
Riley explained that this weakened Willis’ bargaining po-
sition with potential licensees at the time the H.S. Craft
license was negotiated. Id. In light of these many differ-
ences, Ms. Riley opined that Willis would have demanded
a higher royalty rate from Polygroup than the $2 per tree
rate in the H.S. Craft license. J.A. 4351 ¶¶ 169–173. Ms.
Riley explained her assessment of the H.S. Craft license
and many reasons that she thought that its $2 per tree roy-
alty was not the royalty that would have resulted from a
hypothetical negotiation between Willis and Polygroup.
Polygroup did not cross-examine Ms. Riley on any of
these points or attempt to show the additional patents, as
opposed to the ’186 patent, meaningfully drove the royalty
rate reflected in the license. Where an expert identifies dif-
ferences and the opposing party elects not to probe those
differences, Rule 702 does not obligate the district court to
exclude the testimony for lack of further elaboration. And
while the license included a lower royalty than Ms. Riley
ultimately proposed, she did not present that license as a
controlling benchmark, but as one data point informing
what she determined was a reasonable range. J.A. 1653.
To be sure, the district court acknowledged Ms. Riley
could have provided more detail regarding why the H.S.
Craft license reflected a $2 rate despite covering additional
patents. J.A. 25. The district court went on to explain:
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The degree of comparability between license agree-
ments and the hypothetical negotiation is a factual
issue best resolved by the jury. Where, as here, the
patentee’s expert provides some explanation of why
she viewed certain licenses as comparable, and the
accused infringer has an opportunity to challenge
that testimony through cross-examination and con-
trary evidence, the jury’s damages award should
not be disturbed simply because it rests in part on
licenses that are not perfectly analogous. The
Court cannot say that Ms. Riley’s consideration of
the H.S. Craft license and other agreements as
guideposts for the hypothetical negotiation was so
unreliable or prejudicial as to render the damages
verdict improper.
J.A. 26–27 (internal citations omitted). We believe the dis-
trict court struck the correct balance. This case is materi-
ally different from EcoFactor, where we held expert
testimony unreliable because it was predicated on an inac-
curate characterization of the licenses (i.e., that the licen-
sees in that case had agreed upon the rate). EcoFactor, 137
F.4th at 1346 (holding that where “the relevant [record] ev-
idence is contrary to a critical fact upon which the expert
relied, the district court fails to fulfill its responsibility as
gatekeeper by allowing the expert to testify at trial.”). The
dispute here, in contrast, is one of fact over which reasona-
ble minds can differ.
In her market approach, Ms. Riley relied on four other
agreements as important, all of which applied a 5% rate
(which according to Ms. Riley amounts to $5 per tree). Alt-
hough these agreements did not include the ’186 patent,
there was evidence that they included the comparable
Loomis ’042 patent or other technology closely related to
the Loomis GKI Tree. See, e.g., J.A. 4796–813 (licensing
the ’042 patent); J.A. 4782–86 (licensing Loominocity’s “pa-
tent pending with respect to its illumination technique and
technology”); J.A. 46 (“GKI[] produced and sold trees
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embodying the technology described in the Loomis [’042]
Patent”); J.A. 2371 (recognizing “the ’042 patent which is
the Loomis patent” as “go[ing] along with the GKI [T]ree”).
Importantly, Polygroup does not dispute the ’042 Loomis
patent is comparable to the ’186 patent. See Willis
Br. 68–69 (citing J.A. 2525–26). In fact, Polygroup’s own
expert relied upon a license to the ’042 patent as compara-
ble. J.A. 2525–26. A market approach does not require
perfect identity between licensed and asserted patents to
be reliable; it requires a reasoned explanation of why the
licensed technology is sufficiently similar to inform value.
VirnetX, 767 F.3d at 1330 (quoting LaserDynamics, Inc. v.
Quanta Comput., Inc., 694 F.3d 51, 79 (Fed. Cir. 2012))
(“[W]hen relying on licenses to prove a reasonable roy-
alty . . . we have never required identity of circum-
stances.”). Here, trial testimony and Ms. Riley’s expert
report provided such an explanation. J.A. 1837–45;
J.A. 2534–37; J.A. 4353–57 ¶¶ 178–85. Even if Ms. Riley
could have provided a “more fulsome explanation” on why
these licenses were comparable, we agree with the district
court that “the failure to do so in this case was not so egre-
gious as to invalidate her analysis entirely.” J.A. 25–26.
Overall, Ms. Riley’s market approach relied on multi-
ple agreements and served as one component of a broader
apportionment framework, including her income approach.
Polygroup’s criticisms identify disagreements over license
comparability, but the district court did not abuse its dis-
cretion when it concluded that those criticisms did not rise
to a methodological flaw warranting exclusion in an in-
quiry “necessarily involv[ing] an element of approximation
and uncertainty.” EcoFactor, 137 F.4th at 1340 (citation
omitted); see also ActiveVideo, 694 F.3d at 1333. Prior li-
censes are “almost never perfectly analogous to the in-
fringement action.” Ericsson, 773 F.3d at 1227. And while
prior licenses “may cover more patents than are at issue in
the action, . . . the fact that a license is not perfectly anal-
ogous generally goes to the weight of the evidence, not its
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admissibility.” Id. With those principles in mind, we can-
not conclude the district court abused its discretion in ad-
mitting Ms. Riley’s market approach testimony.
3. Georgia-Pacific Analysis
The hypothetical negotiation or “willing licensor-will-
ing licensee” framework “attempts to ascertain the royalty
upon which the parties would have agreed had they suc-
cessfully negotiated an agreement just before infringement
began.” Lucent Techs., 580 F.3d at 1324 (citing Georgia-
Pacific, 318 F. Supp. at 1120). As a general matter, this is
a sound approach, well supported by our precedent. See,
e.g., VLSI Tech. LLC v. Intel Corp., 87 F.4th 1332, 1345–46
(Fed. Cir. 2023); Carnegie Mellon Univ. v. Marvell Tech.
Grp., Ltd., 807 F.3d 1283, 1303–04 (Fed. Cir. 2015); Lucent
Techs., 580 F.3d at 1324–25. A critical consideration in this
analysis is the amount that the alleged infringer would
agree to pay as a willing licensee. Georgia-Pacific,
318 F. Supp. at 1121; Carnegie Mellon, 807 F.3d at 1304
(“A key inquiry in the analysis is what it would have been
worth to the defendant, as it saw things at the time, to ob-
tain the authority to use the patented technology . . . .”).
One important factor is “[t]he royalties received by the pa-
tentee for the licensing of the patent in suit, proving or
tending to prove an established royalty.” Georgia-Pacific,
318 F. Supp. at 1120. “Actual licenses to the patented tech-
nology are highly probative as to what constitutes a rea-
sonable royalty for those patent rights because such actual
licenses most clearly reflect the economic value of the pa-
tented technology in the marketplace.” LaserDynamics,
694 F.3d at 79.
Ms. Riley testified that her income approach led her to
conclude that the reasonable royalty range for Willis and
Polygroup would have been $4.30–$20. J.A. 1652. Her
market approach resulted in a reasonable royalty range of
$2–$5, which she combined with her income approach to
arrive at an expanded reasonable royalty range of $2–$20.
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J.A. 1652–55. And finally, she applied the Georgia-Pacific
factors to select the reasonable royalty within the appor-
tionment-based reasonable royalty range, ultimately arriv-
ing at a $5 reasonable royalty. J.A. 1655–70.
Ms. Riley testified that her Georgia-Pacific analysis
considered all the factors but that she would emphasize
only those she deemed most significant at trial.
J.A. 1655–56. Specifically, she testified to Willis’ and Pol-
ygroup’s commercial relationship; the patented feature’s
commercial success and popularity; the percent of profit
credited to the patented feature; the advantages of using
the patented feature; and the character of Willis’ embodi-
ment of the patented feature. See J.A. 12986. She testified
that, after calculating an apportionment-based reasonable
royalty range, she used these factors to fine-tune her rea-
sonable royalty to a single figure. She did so by applying
upward or downward adjustments based on the outcome of
each factor, indicating whether the reasonable royalty
should fall higher or lower within her apportionment-based
range. See J.A. 12996. Ultimately, she arrived at a rea-
sonable royalty of $5 per tree, which she then multiplied by
a royalty base of 10,623,693 infringing trees to calculate a
total reasonable royalty of $53,118,465. J.A. 1669–70.
On appeal, Polygroup argues Ms. Riley’s invocation of
Georgia-Pacific does not save her unreliable apportion-
ment baseline. It contends her analysis, which she admit-
ted was limited to “qualitative factors,” applied upward or
downward pressure on the royalty rate without adequately
explaining how much each factor contributed to her ulti-
mate determination of a royalty rate. Relying on Jiaxing
Super Lighting Elec. Appliance, Co. v. CH Lighting Tech.
Co., Ltd, 146 F.4th 1098, 1112 (Fed. Cir. 2025),9 Polygroup
9 The language in Jiaxing cited by Polygroup was
dicta. Our decision in Jiaxing did not conclude that the
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asserts such a “purely qualitative discussion” cannot sup-
port a reasonable royalty award. Dkt. No. 35 at 1; Poly-
group Reply 22. Neither Rule 702 nor our precedent
imposes such a rule. Micro Chem., 317 F.3d at 1393–94
(concluding an expert’s qualitative adjustments to the rea-
sonable royalty without an assigned numerical value “did
not run afoul of Rule 702”). The Georgia-Pacific analysis
necessarily permits qualitative analysis because multiple
factors—e.g., the parties’ commercial relationship (Factor
5), the advantages of the patented invention over the prior
art (Factor 9), and the character of the patented embodi-
ment (Factor 10)—do not lend themselves to mathematical
precision, even in a hypothetical negotiation. Georgia-Pa-
cific, 318 F. Supp. at 1120; see Whitserve, 694 F.3d at 31.
It is sufficient for an economic expert to explain how qual-
itative considerations influence where a royalty should fall
within an already-apportioned numerical range. See, e.g.,
Summit 6, 802 F.3d at 1298 (holding reliable an expert’s
analysis envisioning how qualitative Georgia-Pacific fac-
tors would have affected a bargain based on a quantitative
royalty baseline); i4i, 598 F.3d at 853 (holding reliable an
expert’s analysis that adjusted the baseline royalty using
qualitative Georgia-Pacific factors). Estimating a reason-
able royalty is an inexact art; we see no reason to try to
convert it to an “exact science,” which would seem impossi-
ble to achieve. Summit 6, 802 F.3d at 1296. That impossi-
bility is underscored by the reality that, for several
decades, reasonable royalty opinions have rested on ex-
perts applying qualitative Georgia-Pacific factors within
the hypothetical negotiation construct.
magnitude of each upward or downward movement pursu-
ant to a Georgia-Pacific factor needed to be quantified. It
focused on the need for the district court to provide a re-
viewable analysis, not on the merits of the damages ex-
pert’s methodology. Jiaxing, 146 F.4th at 1111–12.
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Ultimately, Polygroup’s objections go to how Ms. Riley
weighed and explained the Georgia-Pacific factors, not to
whether her methodology was reliable. Ms. Riley identi-
fied the factors she considered, explained their directional
effect on the royalty, and anchored that analysis to an ap-
portioned quantitative range. Under those circumstances,
“the gatekeeping role of the court is satisfied, and the in-
quiry on the correctness of the methodology and of the re-
sults produced thereunder belongs to the factfinder.”
Summit 6, 802 F.3d at 1296. Polygroup was free to chal-
lenge Ms. Riley’s conclusions through cross-examination
and competing expert testimony before the jury. Rule 702
does not require the district court to exclude expert testi-
mony simply because the expert’s qualitative judgments in
a field of “approximation and uncertainty” might, at least
theoretically, have been more precisely quantified. Eco-
Factor, 137 F.4th at 1340 (citation omitted). The district
court did not abuse its discretion in admitting Ms. Riley’s
Georgia-Pacific analysis and allowing the jury to deter-
mine its weight.
CONCLUSION
We have considered Polygroup’s remaining arguments
and find them unpersuasive. Because denial of Polygroup’s
motion for JMOL of obviousness and for a new trial on
damages was appropriate, we affirm.
AFFIRMED
COSTS
Costs to Willis.
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