United States of America v. Nicholas Karagianis

In the
United States Court of Appeals
For the Seventh Circuit
____________________
No. 23-2820
U NITED STATES OF A MERICA,
Plaintiff-Appellee,
v.
NICHOLAS K ARAGIANIS,
Defendant-Appellant.
____________________
Appeal from the United States District Court for the
Southern District of Indiana, Indianapolis Division.
No. 1:21-cr-378 — Tanya Walton Pratt, Chief Judge.
____________________
A RGUED A PRIL 8, 2025 — DECIDED J ULY 11, 2025
____________________
Before HAMILITON , LEE , and M ALDONADO, Circuit Judges.
LEE, Circuit Judge. Nicholas Karagianis was indicted on
federal drug and firearm charges. He later entered into a plea
agreement and pleaded guilty to all counts. As part of the
agreement, he and the government stipulated that, under the
United States Sentencing Guidelines, the final offense level for
all counts was 31. The plea agreement also contained a provi-
sion that waived Karagianis’s ability to appeal an adverse

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2 No. 23-2820
ruling on any motion he might file to modify his sentence un-
der 18 U.S.C. § 3582(c)(2).
In anticipation of sentencing, the probation department
prepared a presentence report (PSR). Rather than agreeing
that the total offense level was 31, however, the PSR recom-
mended a final offense level of 33 based on an additional two-
level firearm enhancement not in the plea agreement. At a
combined change-of-plea and sentencing hearing, the district
court adopted the PSR’s recommendation, found the final of-
fense level to be 33, and imposed a below-guideline sentence.
A short time later, Karagianis sent a letter to the court, stating
he was misled by his counsel about how his sentence would
be calculated if he pleaded guilty.
Karagianis raises three arguments on appeal. First, he con-
tends that he entered his guilty plea unknowingly because the
district court had failed to inform him about the waiver of his
right to appeal an adverse ruling of a § 3582(c)(2) motion. He
also faults the court for not explaining the impact the PSR
would have on sentencing. Additionally, Karagianis argues
that the government breached the plea agreement by failing
to object to the PSR’s proposed final offense level of 33. For
the reasons explained below, we affirm the judgment.
I
Karagianis was indicted on two counts of distributing 50
grams or more of methamphetamine in violation of 21 U.S.C.
§ 841(a)(1) and (b)(1)(A) (Counts 1 and 2) and one count of
possessing a firearm as a felon in violation of 18 U.S.C.
§ 922(g)(1) (Count 3). According to the indictment, Karagianis
distributed drugs on two separate occasions in late 2021. And
law enforcement officers would later search his home to find

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No. 23-2820 3
a handgun in his bedroom nightstand as well as 38 grams of
fentanyl on his person. What follows are the relevant portions
of Karagianis’s plea agreement, the PSR, the district court
hearing, and his post-sentencing letter.
A
In February 2023, the parties filed a joint petition to enter
a plea of guilty, attaching the plea agreement. As part of the
agreement, Karagianis and the government stipulated that
Counts 1 and 2 would result in a total offense level of 34 (a
base offense level of 32 plus two additional levels under
U.S.S.G. § 2D1.1(b)(12) for maintaining a premises for the pur-
pose of manufacturing or distributing a controlled substance).
Count 3, the parties agreed, would result in a total offense
level of 18 (a base offense level of 14 plus four additional lev-
els under U.S.S.G. § 2K2.1(b)(6)(B) because Karagianis had
used or possessed a firearm in connection with the distribu-
tion of controlled substances). After applying the Sentencing
Guidelines’ grouping rules and deducting three levels for Ka-
ragianis’s acceptance of responsibility and guilty plea, the fi-
nal offense level was 31.
The agreement, however, noted two important caveats.
First, it confirmed that the parties “underst[ood] and agree[d]
that these [s]tipulations are binding on the parties but are only
a recommendation to the Court and that the Court will deter-
mine the advisory sentencing guideline applicable in this
case.” Second, the parties acknowledged that they did “not
agree[] upon a specific sentence” (emphasis in original) and
reserved the right to argue for a sentence they believed was
appropriate.

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4 No. 23-2820
In addition, Karagianis agreed to waive his right to appeal,
including his right to directly appeal his conviction and sen-
tence and his right to collateral review. Relevant here, Karagi-
anis agreed “not to contest, or seek to modify, [his] conviction
or sentence or the manner in which either was determined in
any legal proceeding, including but not limited to, an action
brought under 18 U.S.C. § 3582.” Notwithstanding this
waiver, the government agreed that it would allow Karagi-
anis to file a motion under § 3582(c)(2) if the United States
Sentencing Commission or Congress amended the Sentencing
Guidelines to lower the guideline range applicable to Karagi-
anis’s offenses retroactively.1 But there was an exception to
this exception: “should [Karagianis] seek to appeal an adverse
ruling of the district court on such a motion,” the parties
agreed, “th[e] waiver bars such an appeal.”
Finally, Karagianis acknowledged in the plea agreement
that he had “read the entire Plea Agreement and discussed it
with [his] attorney,” and that he “underst[ood] all the terms
of the Plea Agreement and those terms correctly reflect[ed]
1 Section 3582(c)(2) provides:
[I]n the case of a defendant who has been sentenced to a term of
imprisonment based on a sentencing range that has subsequently
been lowered by the Sentencing Commission pursuant to 28
U.S.C. 994(o), upon motion of the defendant or the Director of
the Bureau of Prisons, or on its own motion, the court may reduce
the term of imprisonment, after considering the factors set forth
in section 3553(a) to the extent that they are applicable, if such a
reduction is consistent with applicable policy statements issued
by the Sentencing Commission.
18 U.S.C. § 3582(c)(2).

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No. 23-2820 5
the results of plea negotiations.” The agreement was signed
by Karagianis, his attorney, and the prosecutors.
In anticipation of sentencing, the probation department
prepared Karagianis’s PSR. It mirrored the parties’ stipulated
guideline calculation in all but one respect—the probation de-
partment recommended an additional two offense levels un-
der U.S.S.G. § 2D1.1(b)(1) on the grounds that Karagianis had
possessed a dangerous weapon in connection with a drug
trafficking offense. With this added enhancement, the final of-
fense level was 33 rather than 31.2
In response to the PSR, the defense submitted an objection
related to the scoring of a past conviction. The government
filed no objection to the PSR.
B
On June 7, 2023, the district court conducted a combined
change-of-plea and sentencing hearing. Karagianis stated un-
der oath that he was 38 years old, attended a year of college,
and was not receiving mental health treatment or under the
influence of any substance. The court asked Karagianis
whether he had read the plea agreement and discussed it with
his lawyer. The court also probed whether Karagianis under-
stood the terms and conditions in the agreement. Karagianis
responded affirmatively to both questions.
2 Probation applied the enhancement following our decision in United
States v. Tinsley, 62 F.4th 376, 390 (7th Cir. 2023) (concluding that counting
guns that formed the basis for certain firearm convictions to also enhance
a sentence for felon-in-possession convictions did not amount to improper
double counting). Tinsley was issued after the filing of the plea agreement
but before the preparation of the PSR in this case.

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6 No. 23-2820
After describing the consequences of entering a guilty
plea, the court returned to the plea agreement and explained
that the court was not bound by it, “so the ultimate determi-
nation of [Karagianis’s] sentence [was] left to [its] discretion.”
Karagianis affirmed that he understood. The court then re-
viewed the elements of the charged offenses before reiterating
that “[b]ecause this [was] a nonbinding plea agreement, [the
court was] going to use [its] discretion to fashion a sentence
within the statutory ranges.”
The court proceeded to confirm that Karagianis had dis-
cussed the statutory sentencing factors with his counsel and
noted that it would consider those factors when determining
the appropriate sentence. The court also discussed the Sen-
tencing Guidelines, emphasizing that “those sentencing
guidelines are not mandatory or binding on [it]” but “advi-
sory in nature.” The court specifically told Karagianis that,
even “if [it] determine[d] a different advisory sentencing
guideline range than what [was] in this plea agreement,” Ka-
ragianis would still be bound by his guilty plea. And the court
reminded Karagianis that the parties’ guideline stipulations
“are only a recommendation to the [c]ourt.” Karagianis again
affirmed his understanding of each of the court’s statements.
Turning to the appeal waiver, the court advised Karagi-
anis that he had expressly agreed not to contest his conviction
or sentence on direct appeal or in any postconviction proceed-
ings. At this point, Karagianis’s counsel asked for a brief re-
cess, and the court paused the hearing so that the two could
talk privately.
After the break, the court reiterated that Karagianis was
waiving his right to appeal as well as to pursue postconviction
proceedings with “some exceptions.” One exception, noted

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No. 23-2820 7
the court, allowed Karagianis to file a motion under 18 U.S.C.
§ 3582(c)(2) to modify his sentence in the event of an applica-
ble retroactive Guideline amendment. The court, however,
did not recount that the plea agreement barred Karagianis
from appealing an adverse ruling on such a motion.
Satisfied that Karagianis was entering the plea knowingly
and voluntarily, the court accepted his plea of guilty to all
three counts and continued to the sentencing portion of the
hearing. The court first asked the government whether it had
any objections or corrections to the PSR. The prosecutor re-
plied, “No, Your Honor.” The court then confirmed that Ka-
ragianis had reviewed the PSR with his counsel.
After ruling on an objection not relevant to this appeal, the
court adopted the recommendations in the PSR and calcu-
lated a total offense level of 33. Combining this with Karagi-
anis’s criminal history category of V, the court arrived at an
overall guideline range of 210 to 262 months of imprisonment
for each of Counts 1 and 2, and 120 months of imprisonment
for Count 3.
For its part, the government requested a below-guideline
sentence of between 188 and 200 months of imprisonment to
avoid disparities with other similarly situated defendants.
Defense counsel did not request a specific sentence but asked
that Karagianis be placed in a drug treatment program while
in custody. Finally, after considering the sentencing factors in
18 U.S.C. § 3553(a), the court imposed a term of imprisonment
of 168 months for each of Counts 1 and 2, and 120 months for
Count 3, all to be served concurrently.

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8 No. 23-2820
C
Nine days after his sentencing, Karagianis wrote a letter to
the court claiming that he had signed his guilty plea based on
incorrect information from his counsel. In Karagianis’s own
words, he was told, “there were no more mandatory mini-
mums, that the AUSA was binded [sic] by my plea that was
offense level 31 criminal history category 4 which the low end
would’ve been 12yr 7mo, that I could modify & that we would
ask for the safety valve.” Defense counsel also purportedly
told him that there was no basis to challenge the various sen-
tencing enhancements. According to Karagianis, “[he] found
out at the end of sentencing everything [he] was told was not
true,” and, had he known otherwise, he would not have en-
tered into the plea agreement. We construed Karagianis’s let-
ter as a notice of appeal and appointed him counsel.
II
Karagianis seeks to undo his guilty plea in two ways. First,
he contends that the district court violated Federal Rule of
Criminal Procedure 11 by omitting certain items during the
plea colloquy. Second, he argues that the government
breached the plea agreement by not objecting to the PSR’s rec-
ommended final offense level.
As an initial matter, we note that Karagianis failed to raise
these arguments below, and so we review his challenges for
plain error. See United States v. Navarro, 817 F.3d 494, 499 (7th
Cir. 2015) (applying plain error review to breach-of-plea-
agreement argument); United States v. Sura, 511 F.3d 654, 658
(7th Cir. 2007) (applying plain error review to Rule 11 claim).
Under plain error review, a defendant “will prevail if he can
demonstrate that: (1) there was an error; (2) the error is clear

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No. 23-2820 9
or obvious, rather than subject to reasonable dispute; (3) the
error affected [the defendant’s] substantial rights; and (4) the
error seriously affects the fairness, integrity, or public reputa-
tion of judicial proceedings.” Navarro, 817 F.3d at 499 (cita-
tions omitted). Throughout this process, Karagianis bears the
burden of proof. See Sura, 511 F.3d at 659 (citing United States
v. Vonn, 535 U.S. 55, 82 (2002)).
A
Karagianis first argues that he did not knowingly enter his
plea because the district court had not informed him about (1)
the waiver of his ability to appeal any denial of a sentence-
reduction motion under § 3582(c)(2), and (2) the significant
role the PSR played in the calculation of his guideline range.
These omissions, he claims, violated Federal Rule of Criminal
Procedure 11.
Rule 11, a “guilty-plea safeguard[],” United States v. Ruiz,
536 U.S. 622, 631 (2002), articulates “the procedures that a dis-
trict court must follow when a defendant wishes to plead
guilty,” Sura, 511 F.3d at 657. The rule requires the judge to
“address the defendant personally in open court.” Fed. R.
Crim. P. 11(b)(1). “During this colloquy, the court must con-
vey specific information about his rights and the conse-
quences of his plea, and it must satisfy itself that he under-
stands those rights.” United States v. Olson, 880 F.3d 873, 876
(7th Cir. 2018) (citing Fed. R. Crim. P. 11(b)(1)). The purpose
of a Rule 11 colloquy is to ensure “that a defendant’s guilty
plea is truly voluntary,” so “the more meticulously the Rule
is adhered to, the more it tends to discourage … the numerous
and often frivolous … attacks on the constitutional validity of
guilty pleas.” McCarthy v. United States, 394 U.S. 459, 465
(1969), superseded on other grounds by Fed. R. Crim. P. 11(h).

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10 No. 23-2820
When a defendant seeks to invalidate a guilty plea,
“[c]ourts should not upset a plea solely because of post hoc as-
sertions from a defendant about how he would have pleaded
…. Judges should instead look to contemporaneous evidence
to substantiate a defendant’s expressed preferences.” Lee v.
United States, 582 U.S. 357, 369 (2017). Moreover, “[t]he valid-
ity of a Rule 11 colloquy is based on the totality of the circum-
stances.” United States v. Loutos, 383 F.3d 615, 619 (7th Cir.
2004). Such factors include “the complexity of the charge, the
defendant’s level of intelligence, age, and education, whether
the defendant was represented by counsel, the judge’s inquiry
during the plea hearing and the defendant’s statements, as
well as the evidence proffered by the government.” Id. (inter-
nal quotation marks omitted).
1
As Karagianis sees it, the district court violated Rule
11(b)(1)(N) by not ensuring that he understood he was waiv-
ing his right to appeal the denial of a § 3582(c)(2) sentence-
reduction motion. But this argument fails under plain error
review.
Rule 11(b)(1)(N) provides that “the court must inform the
defendant of, and determine that the defendant understands
... the terms of any plea-agreement provision waiving the
right to appeal or to collaterally attack the sentence.” Fed. R.
Crim. P. 11(b)(1)(N). Given the atypical nature of the waiver
provisions in this case, compliance with Rule 11(b)(1)(N) re-
quired unusually close attention to the structure of the plea
agreement. Karagianis’s plea agreement did not contain a
general waiver of all appellate and post-conviction rights. It
set forth instead a detailed set of waivers and exceptions in six
different paragraphs.

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No. 23-2820 11
The second of those paragraphs contained a waiver of the
right to pursue most forms of postconviction relief. However,
the agreement explicitly exempted a number of items from
that general postconviction-proceedings waiver, including a
motion seeking a sentence-reduction under § 3582(c)(2). To its
credit, the district court went over the § 3582(c)(2) exception
with Karagianis, explaining that, despite waivers of other
postconviction remedies, Karagianis retained the right to seek
relief under § 3582(c)(2). But the court did not go over the
oddly worded exception to the exception: “Furthermore,
should the defendant seek to appeal an adverse ruling of the
district court on such a [§ 3582(c)(2)] motion, this waiver bars
such an appeal.” This omission left the mistaken impression
that Karagianis retained the right to pursue such a motion to
the fullest extent, including appeal, particularly given the care
the court took to explain the other appeal-waiver provisions
in the agreement. Thus, under these circumstances, the dis-
trict court’s failure to inform Karagianis that he would waive
any right to appeal a denial of a § 3582(c)(2) motion was erro-
neous.
The government suggests, however, that the court’s error
was not “clear or obvious,” Navarro, 817 F.3d at 499, because
the court generally informed Karagianis that he was agreeing
not to contest his sentence or the manner in which it was de-
termined in any postconviction proceedings. But this state-
ment (and the provision in the plea agreement on which it
was based) does not specifically mention appeals at all, much
less appeals related to postconviction motions that Karagianis
retained the right to file under the agreement. Cf. United States
v. Woods, 581 F.3d 531, 533–34 (7th Cir. 2009) (materially iden-
tical waiver language did not bar appeal of denial of

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12 No. 23-2820
§ 3582(c)(2) relief), overruled on other grounds by United States
v. Taylor, 778 F.3d 667, 669 (7th Cir. 2015).
Indeed, the court informed Karagianis that he retained the
right to file a postconviction claim under § 2255 asserting in-
effective assistance of counsel, a motion for compassionate re-
lease under § 3582(c)(1)(A)(i), and a motion under
§ 3582(c)(2). The first two exceptions did not limit Karagi-
anis’s right to appeal in any fashion, but the third one did. Ac-
cordingly, the colloquy viewed in its entirety left the impres-
sion that Karagianis retained the right to pursue all three ex-
ceptions to the postconviction waiver to their fullest extent,
including appeal. Given the peculiarity of these provisions,
the court should have done more to ensure that Karagianis
understood their nuances. See Sura, 511 F.3d at 662 (noting
that the purpose of Rule 11’s subparagraphs is to “ensure that
the defendant actually knows what rights he is signing away”)
(emphasis added).
Nonetheless, Karagianis has not demonstrated that the
district court’s error affected his substantial rights. To make
this showing, Karagianis must establish “a reasonable proba-
bility that, but for the error, he would not have entered the
plea.” United States v. Dominguez Benitez, 542 U.S. 74, 83 (2004).
“If the record reveals an adequate substitute for the missing
Rule 11 safeguard, and the defendant fails to show why the
omission made a difference to him, his substantial rights were
not affected.” United States v. Coleman, 806 F.3d 941, 944–45
(7th Cir. 2015) (citing Sura, 511 F.3d at 662). “We look to the
entire record to determine whether he made this showing[.]”
United States v. Goliday, 41 F.4th 778, 786 (7th Cir. 2022) (citing
Dominguez Benitez, 542 U.S. at 83). In particular, the right to
appeal in question here is highly contingent. It could affect

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No. 23-2820 13
Karagianis only if (a) the United States Sentencing Commis-
sion adopted in the future an amendment affecting Karagi-
anis’s situation, (b) the Commission then made the amend-
ment retroactive, and (c) Karagianis then sought relief and
lost in the district court.
Karagianis relies on our decision in Sura, in which we con-
cluded that the defendant’s substantial rights were affected
by the district court’s failure to mention a plea agreement’s
appellate waiver. See Sura, 511 F.3d at 662–63. But the facts in
Sura are markedly different from the circumstances here. In
Sura, the defendant was 71 years old, undergoing psycholog-
ical treatment, and, puzzlingly, told the court that he was ac-
cepting the plea agreement because he had to plead guilty. Id.
at 656, 662. There was nothing in the record beyond the facts
that the defendant was “literate and signed the agreement” to
indicate that he understood the plea agreement. Id. at 662. For
example, the district court did not ask whether his attorney
had explained the appellate waiver or whether the defendant
had reviewed the agreement with his attorney. Id. Thus, we
doubted, “in light of [his] confused responses to the district
judge’s questions, his age, and his mental condition,” that the
defendant would have entered the plea “had he realized that
he was losing his chance to challenge the district court’s sen-
tencing decision.” Id.
By contrast, Karagianis was 38 years old at the time of the
plea, had completed a year of college, and displayed no signs
that he did not understand the nature of the proceedings. In-
deed, he expressly acknowledged at the hearing and within
the plea agreement itself that he understood the agreement’s
terms. We have determined on similar facts that adequate
“substitutes for a proper Rule 11 colloquy were in place,

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14 No. 23-2820
which indicated that [the defendant] was aware” of a waiver
omitted from a plea colloquy. United States v. Polak, 573 F.3d
428, 432 (7th Cir. 2009) (concluding that defendant “had ade-
quate knowledge of the appellate waiver” in light of, among
other things, his acknowledgement within the plea agreement
of having reviewed it and the court’s inquiry about whether
he reviewed the agreement with his attorney); see also Cole-
man, 806 F.3d at 945 (“The written plea agreement and his ad-
missions that his lawyer explained the agreement to him and
he understood the agreement—presumed to be true—are ad-
equate substitutes for the verbal in-court colloquy about the
collateral-attack waiver.”) (citation omitted).
Nor has Karagianis demonstrated that he would not have
pleaded guilty had he been explicitly reminded by the court
about the § 3582(c)(2)-appeal waiver. Karagianis said in his
post-sentencing letter that he would not have pleaded guilty
if he had not been misled by his attorney about certain mat-
ters, including that he “could modify.” Presumably, he was
referring to his ability to ask a court to modify his sentence.
But the plea agreement did preserve his right to file a motion
under § 3582(c)(2); it just made clear that he cannot appeal in
the event that such a motion is denied. Moreover, Karagianis
did not indicate in his letter, much less substantiate on appeal,
that he would not have entered the plea had the district court
reminded him of his agreement to waive a § 3582(c)(2) appeal.
But even if his substantial rights were affected, Karagianis
has not established that the district court’s omission was so
serious as to impugn the fairness, integrity, or public reputa-
tion of the judicial proceedings. See Navarro, 817 F.3d at 499.
We concluded in Sura that omitting from a Rule 11 colloquy
any discussion of a defendant’s waiver of appellate rights in

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No. 23-2820 15
a plea agreement justified setting aside the defendant’s plea.
511 F.3d at 663. But that case is readily distinguishable for the
reasons explained. And there is no evidence that the
§ 3582(c)(2)-appeal waiver played an essential role in Karagi-
anis’s decision to plead guilty. On this record, holding Kara-
gianis to his agreement would not undermine confidence in
the integrity of the judicial process.3
2
Karagianis next contends that the district court violated
Rule 11(b)(1)(M) by failing to ensure that he understood the
relevance of the PSR as the starting point for the calculation
of his guideline range. That rule provides that “the court must
inform the defendant of, and determine that the defendant
understands … in determining a sentence, the court’s obliga-
tion to calculate the applicable sentencing-guideline range
and to consider that range, possible departures under the Sen-
tencing Guidelines, and other sentencing factors under 18
U.S.C. § 3553(a).” Fed. R. Crim. P. 11(b)(1)(M). What the rule
lacks is any mandate that the court explain the relevance of
the PSR to its sentence determination. And Karagianis has
cited no authority to the contrary.
Furthermore, Karagianis asserts that he would not have
agreed to plead guilty had he known that the district court
could apply the additional two-level firearm enhancement.
3 Karagianis has not argued that a defendant’s knowing and voluntary
waiver of his right to appeal the denial of a motion under 18 U.S.C.
§ 3582(c)(2) is unenforceable as a matter of law, and we take no position
on that issue, nor on whether, given the omission of the provision in the
plea colloquy, the waiver would actually be enforceable if and when that
question might arise.

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16 No. 23-2820
But we find this hard to believe. After all, as Karagianis af-
firmed, he understood that the stipulations in the plea agree-
ment did not bind the court and reviewed the PSR with his
counsel well before entering his plea. Given these circum-
stances, Karagianis falls well short of establishing that the dis-
trict court’s actions adversely impacted his substantive rights
or diminish the fairness, integrity, or public reputation of the
judicial proceedings.4
B
Lastly, Karagianis argues that the government breached
the plea agreement by failing to object to the PSR’s recom-
mended total offense level of 33 despite its stipulation. To de-
termine whether a breach has occurred, “we apply ordinary
principles of contract law in interpreting the agreement, ‘with
an eye to the special public-interest concerns that arise in this
context.’” United States v. Orlando, 823 F.3d 1126, 1134 (7th Cir.
2016) (quoting United States v. Malone, 815 F.3d 367, 370 (7th
Cir. 2016)). Thus, we will hold the parties to “the plain, unam-
biguous language” of the plea agreement, and only when am-
biguities exist will we examine “the parties’ reasonable expec-
tations and construe ambiguities against the government as
the drafter.” Id. (citing Malone, 815 F.3d at 370).
At the outset, we question whether the government
breached the plea agreement at all. True, the agreement states
4 The cases Karagianis cites in support of his Rule 11(b)(1)(M) argu-
ment are distinguishable. Goliday, 41 F.4th at 784, involved a failure to en-
sure that the defendant had “real notice” of the charges against him. And,
in Olson, 880 F.3d at 879, the court did not conduct a plea colloquy for a
new guilty plea.

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No. 23-2820 17
that the guideline stipulations are “binding on the parties,”
but it also states that they are only recommendations and not
binding on the court. Furthermore, nothing in the plea agree-
ment obligates the government to object to the PSR in the
event it calculated the guidelines differently. And, unlike in
United States v. Cruz, 95 F.4th 106, 111 (3d Cir. 2024), the gov-
ernment did not affirmatively advocate for an enhancement
not contained in the plea agreement. Thus, any breach was
not clear or obvious.5
But, even assuming the government had plainly breached
the plea agreement, the breach did not impact Karagianis’s
5 Other appellate courts have reached different conclusions on similar
facts, further illustrating that any breach here was not plain. See, e.g.,
United States v. Gall, 829 F.3d 64, 73 (1st Cir. 2016) (finding no plain breach
of plea agreement where prosecutor stated to court that calculations in
PSR correctly reflected the facts in the case and did not seek enhancements
beyond those set forth in plea agreement); United States v. Ellis, 641 F.3d
411, 417, 420 (9th Cir. 2011) (regardless of whether review is de novo or for
plain error, rejecting claim that government breached plea agreement be-
cause it “made no argument that the district court should increase the of-
fense level calculation set forth in the PSR and plea agreement”); United
States v. Has No Horses, 261 F.3d 744, 750 (8th Cir. 2001) (applying de novo
review and finding no breach where “plea agreement did not obligate the
government to object to recommendations made in the presentence re-
port” that conflicted with plea agreement). But see United States v. Lovelace,
565 F.3d 1080, 1087 (8th Cir. 2009) (concluding that government plainly
breached plea agreement based on government telling district court that
PSR calculation was “correct” despite disparity between plea agreement’s
base offense level of 20 and PSR’s base offense level of 24); Gunn v. Ignacio,
263 F.3d 965, 970 (9th Cir. 2001) (granting habeas relief upon finding that
government breached the plea agreement; “[f]or a prosecutor to tell a
judge at sentencing that he concurs in a presentence report is an argument
for sentencing in accord with the presentence report”).

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18 No. 23-2820
substantial rights. “To make that showing, [Karagianis]
would need to establish a reasonable likelihood that he would
have received a lower sentence if prosecutors had spoken up
about [the parties’ lower stipulated total offense level].”
United States v. Wyatt, 982 F.3d 1028, 1031 (7th Cir. 2020).
Karagianis faces a particularly high hurdle here because
the court imposed a sentence of 168 months of imprisonment,
considerably below the calculated guideline range of 210 to
262 months. Moreover, applying the guideline stipulations in
the plea agreement would have resulted in a guideline range
of 168 to 210 months. See U.S.S.G. Ch. 5 Pt. A (U.S. Sent’g
Comm’n 2021). Thus, the ultimate sentence was at the low end
of the range that Karagianis advocates here.
Undeterred, Karagianis urges us to consider the possibil-
ity that the district court might have imposed an even lower
sentence had it applied the guideline range in the manner the
parties had agreed. But Karagianis knew that the court did
not have to follow the stipulations. And nothing in the record
indicates that the court would have ignored the two-level fire-
arm enhancement recommended in the PSR or that, if it had,
it would have imposed a more lenient sentence than it did. Cf.
Wyatt, 982 F.3d at 1031 (“The remote possibility of a sentence
even lighter than the parties’ agreed recommendation cannot
satisfy the ‘remarkably demanding’ test for plain error in this
situation.”) (quoting United States v. Anderson, 604 F.3d 997,
1002–03 (7th Cir. 2010)).
For the sake of completeness, we also note that nothing in
the record indicates that the government’s failure to object to
the PSR was so serious as to impugn the fairness, integrity, or
public reputation of the judicial proceedings. To be sure, “[a]
government breach of a plea agreement can be a very serious

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No. 23-2820 19
matter, particularly if it concerns the government’s sentencing
recommendation or position.” United States v. Collins, 986 F.3d
1029, 1032 (7th Cir. 2021) (citing Wyatt, 982 F.3d at 1030). But,
for the reasons explained, there is little reason to believe that
Karagianis would have received an even lower sentence had
the court adopted the parties’ stipulated total offense level.
III
For the foregoing reasons, we AFFIRM the judgment of the
district court.

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