Key legal question
Whether the refusal of conditional release under Art. 86(1) StGB violated federal law or Art. 29 BV
Extracted holding
No. The cantonal court correctly weighed the relevant prognostic factors and could deny release because a further offence risk remained.
Extracted reasoning
Conditional release is the rule, but it requires a favorable prognosis. The appellant's prior convictions, failed prior leniency measures, lack of insight, and continued minimization of his conduct outweighed his good prison conduct and personal circumstances.