Question juridique clé
Whether conditional release should be granted under Art. 86 CP
Solution extraite
No. The applicant met the formal time-served requirement and his prison conduct was satisfactory, but the overall prognosis remained clearly unfavorable because of the seriousness of the offenses, persistent denial, lack of remorse, weak reintegration prospects, and a concrete risk of reoffending.
Motifs extraits
Conditional release is the rule, but the authority must assess prognosis globally. The cantonal court did not abuse its discretion by relying on criminological and psychiatric assessments, the applicant's personality traits, and the absence of realistic release plans.