Questione giuridica chiave
Whether the refusal of conditional release under Art. 86 StGB was lawful
Decisione estratta
The material prognosis was still negative; the refusal was justified.
Motivazione estratta
Despite formal eligibility and generally decent prison conduct, the appellant’s extensive recidivist history, prior failed releases, recent disciplinary incidents, and the risk assessment supported a negative overall prognosis. The court also accepted a differential prognosis that did not favor release.